College basketball prediction

College basketball prediction was created to assist the college hoops gambler in cashing in from the preseason tournaments all the way through March Madness.

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This site was created to assist the college hoops gambler in cashing in from the preseason tournaments all the way through March Madness. Be sure to log on daily for all of the latest information, news and tips during the college b-ball season.

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CBB: North Carolina vs. Villanova (8:45 PM ET, CBS)
2009-04-06

Villanova is the lowest seed to make the Final Four this season and has to fight the “just happy to be here” syndrome. If you noticed, head coach Jay Wright had the biggest smile of any of the sideline generals that appeared on television over the weekend. It is generally accepted that the coach has a chance at least for a day to relish the moment of taking a team to the elite of college basketball and it is personally satisfying to do so. Bettors give his team a better chance of beating North Carolina than the oddsmakers do. See the latest breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.

Villanova (30-7, 19-14 ATS) was close three years ago, with another bunch of scintillating guards. In 2006, it was seniors Randy Foye and Allen Ray, along with Kyle Lowery. They were the number one seed and lost to eventual champion Florida. In fact, the Wildcats have been a terrific tournament team under Wright with 11-4 SU record, but three of their four losses have been to eventual champion.

What made this team better is stronger inside presence, led by Dante Cunningham. The senior gives them a hard-working rebounder with nose for the ball and Shane Clark is ravenous defender, who also crashes the glass. While Villanova has somewhat of a reputation for slow-down basketball, they can play all 94 feet expertly and are 11-2 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game this season.

A lot of the attention is focused on the guards and it should be. Scottie Reynolds is the main man, but hardly the whole show. The Corey Fisher-Corey Stokes guard combo give the ‘Cats two scorers and defenders and Reggie Redding can lock an opponents best scorer, while adding points himself. Villanova comes is 10-3 ATS following a ATS win, which they had over Pittsburgh and you better not neglect Dwayne Anderson who also does many of the little things that have helped this team win games.

If you noticed, North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS) had the most joy-less celebration of the four combatants that have made their way to the Motor City. The reason is simple; last year’s loss in the Final Four to Kansas left an empty void and the goal this year was to win six games in the tournament, not four.

Like every team in Detroit, the Tar Heels are peaking. North Carolina is 11-4 ATS away from Chapel Hill versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points an outing. Danny Green and Wayne Ellington have been finding the bottom of the net with exceptional regularity and Tyler Hansbrough is more dependable than a Swiss Army knife. As has been witnessed, Ty Lawson is playing not only like the ACC player of the year, but also like a first team All-American guard.

North Carolina’s offense is almost impossible to contain, scoring 90 points a game, converting on 48.3 percent of attempts and burying the three-ball 38.3 percent of the time. Though this team is more focused on offense than defense, that doesn’t mean they do not defend, ask Oklahoma who needed several baskets late just to reach 60 points. When the Heels hold opponents to 60 or less points they are 13-4 ATS in next contest.

For the second game of the day, Sportsbook.com has North Carolina as seven point favorite with a total of 158.5.

If North Carolina is hitting on all cylinders (a little Detroit talk), Villanova is only going to get run over with the Tar Heels taking record to 9-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament the last two years. UNC can match the play of the Wildcats guards and has more fire power and options to put them away. If they have a six point lead late, North Carolina can salt it away and cover, since they make 76 percent from the free throw line.

Villanova can shock the world in part because they are free of pressure. The so-called experts give Michigan State a shot to pull the upset, with nobody talking about coach Wright’s ‘Cats. Nova has to hit shots and avoid dead spots, where North Carolina can run off 10 straight in less than two minutes. They must always stay within contact. The defense has to play up on their man, especially Lawson, getting a hand in the face on every attempt and not have Cunningham get in foul trouble. Villanova has covered five of last six as tournament underdogs.

Teams like Villanova off back to back upsets are just 2-7 ATS when they make the Final Four, yet teams like the Tar Heels that are favored by seven or more points two days before the championship are 1-8 against the oddsmakers number.

CBB: Baylor vs. Penn State – NIT Championship (7:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-04-02

Just 2-1/2 weeks ago, coach Ed DeChellis and his Penn State team watched the NCAA Tournament Selection Show with disappointment as they were one of the teams left out in the cold. Apparently though, the Nittany Lions took this snubbing and used it as motivation to make a postseason run of a different kind, in the NIT Tournament. On Thursday night from Madison Square Garden, they’ll find themselves playing for a championship against a #3 seeded Baylor team that was overlooked as a club capable of reaching New York. The Bears have been installed as a 4-point favorite with a total of 138. See which side of the action your colleagues are backing on the BETTING TRENDS page.

The funny thing about Penn State being here, is that it was a Hail Mary type of shot away from being bounced in the first round of the tournament by George Mason. Since PG Taylor Battle’s OT forcing 3PT shot at the buzzer of that game, the Nittany Lions have gone on to three convincing wins, including twice as an underdog. The most impressive of this group has to be the 71-62 upset in Gainesville over the Gators. However, with road wins over Georgia Tech, Michigan State, and Illinois on their ledger, the Lions are no stranger to coming up big on the road. In fact, their 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS mark away from home is the stuff bankrolls are built on.

If you consider the path that Penn State took to get to the NIT title game, it amounts nothing to how far the Baylor program has come in recent years. Since the devastating events surrounding Patrick’s Dennehy’s murder in 2003, and the follow-up uncovering of recruiting and other program violations, Baylor has clearly turned things around under HC Scott Drew. A championship here would be perhaps the final chapter in what has been a remarkable rise from NCAA purgatory.
Speaking of road success, it’s hard to top the achievements of the Baylor Bears, particularly when it comes to tourney action. In fact, under HC Scott Drew, Baylor is 16-7 ATS in all tournament games, and 40-25 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record. That last mark improves to 19-9 ATS if you only consider the last two seasons’ games. Furthermore, the Bears got to this point by winning their last three games on foreign turf, first at Virginia tech, then at Auburn, and finally on Tuesday in the semifinal against San Diego State.

In terms of handicapping this matchup, if either team has a significant statistical edge, it would be Baylor in shooting the ball, both from the field and from the foul stripe. The Bears have been very efficient offensively in the NIT run, shooting 50% or better from the floor in all four games. They also are better than 46% from the floor and 71% from the foul line on the season. Meanwhile, Penn State shoots just 44.3% and 65.9% in those areas.

If one player were to decided this contest, it could be Penn State’s Battle, as he has proven time and again the ability to step up and lift his team from despair in the most clutch of moments. The first team All-Big Ten performer leads the team at 16.8 PPG, but don’t discount post player Jamelle Cornley (14.3 PPG), as he has enjoyed a big personal NIT tournament run of his own. Baylor boasts a balanced attack with PG Curtis Jerrells leading four double-digit scorers at 16.3 PPG.

This will be the 72nd time that the NIT has crowned a champion, and if you’re one of those who pooh-pooh’s this tournament or refers to it as the NIT-WIT bracket, don’t forget that this was once recognized as THE tournament in postseason college basketball. Also, consider the recent history of the NIT finalists and what these teams went onto the following seasons. After all, playing in and/or winning a championship boosts confidence, no matter where it is from. Take a look at the recent history of NIT finalists.

2000 Championship: Wake Forest 71, Notre Dame 61.

Following year: Both Wake Forest and Notre Dame went on to make NCAA tourney appearances in 2001, winning 19 & 20 games respectively. The Irish reached the second round of the Big Dance while Wake was upset in a first round game.

2001 Championship: Tulsa 79, Alabama 60.

Following year: Both Tulsa and Alabama used their NIT runs of 2001 as a springboard to success in ’02, as each team won 27 games the following season. Both clubs received NCAA bids and each won its first round game before falling the next time out. The Tide was a #2 seed.
2002 Championship: Memphis 72, South Carolina 62.

Following year: Memphis parlayed its 2002 NIT title into its first NCAA bid in seven years in ’03. The Tigers finished 23-7 that year and haven’t looked back since. For South Carolina, the championship experience meant little, as the Gamecocks went just 12-16 in ’03.
2003 Championship: St. John's 70, Georgetown 67.

Following year: The all-Big East NIT championship game of ’03 was at the time an anomaly as far as being a springboard for the finalists in the follow-up season. St. Johns was just 6-21 in ’04 and Georgetown just 13-15.

2004 Championship: Michigan 62, Rutgers 55.

Following year: For the second straight year, the two finalists from the NIT championship fell flat on their faces in the following season, as Michigan was just 13-18 in the 2005 season and Rutgers just 10-19.
2005 Championship: South Carolina 60, St. Joseph's 57.

Following year: Both South Carolina and St Joseph’s took their 2005 NIT championship game experience and went on to another NIT bid the following season. The Gamecocks won 23 games and a second straight NIT title, while the Hawks won 19 games, reaching the round of 16.
2006 Championship: South Carolina 76, Michigan 64.

Following year: After making its third appearance in the NIT championship in five seasons, while winning two, South Carolina’s postseason luck ran out in 2007, as the Gamecocks finished just 14-16. Michigan meanwhile, went on to a second straight NIT berth in ’07, getting one of its 22 season wins while there.

2007 Championship: West Virginia 78, Clemson 73

Following year: West Virginia’s 2007 NIT championship inspired a 26-11 season in ’08 and a run to the NCAA’s Sweet 16 round. Clemson meanwhile, took its newfound ’07 postseason success and catapulted to a first NCAA bid in 10 years the following season. The Tigers finished 24-10, winning their first 10 games of the ’08 campaign.

2008 Championship: Ohio State 92, Massachusetts 85.

Following year: The young Ohio State team of 2008 that won the NIT Championship went on to a NCAA bid this past season, going 22-10 before being ousted in the first round by Siena. The tournament experienced Buckeyes also made an appearance in the Big 10 championship game. UMass meanwhile, went just 12-18 this past season.

Only the future knows what’s in store for Baylor and Penn State for the ’09-10 season.

Tip-time for Thursday night’s championship contest is 7:00 PM ET and will be brought live to your living room by the Worldwide Leader, ESPN.

CBB: Elite 8 Round Tendencies
2009-03-27

Eight teams have their sights set on four spots in Detroit next week and college basketball’s prestigious Final Four proceedings. However, that means four other teams will see their seasons end either Saturday or Sunday. Still, to reach this point in the tournament, a team has truly reached elite status. What does it take to make it one step further? Take a look at the following trends for the Elite 8 round to see if you can get a jump start on your weekend college hoops betting. Of course, Sportsbook.com has all the betting action for you. Get the latest lines, totals, and more on the LIVE ODDS page.

- Favorites covered three of the four Elite 8 games in ’08, slowing a stretch of 22-9-1 ATS (70.9%) for underdogs from ’00-07.

- #1 seeds have been involved in 32 of the last 44 games in the Elite 8 round. Their record: 19-13 SU, but 12-18 ATS (40%).

- Teams favored by 8-points or more in the quarterfinal round have lost just two of the last 12 games outright, but are just 3-9 ATS (25%).

- Worse seeds hold an advantage in this round since 1998, going 27-15-2 ATS (64%). Those playing as underdogs of less than 7-points are 12-10 SU & 15-7 ATS (68%)!

- OVER the total is on a 21-10 run (68%) in this highest scoring of any round. In games with totals of 145 or less, the OVER has been spectacular, 20-6 (77%).

- For those looking for a nice parlay in the Elite 8 round, in the L15 games that the favorite has covered, the OVER is 13-1-1 (93%), including three times in ‘08.

Midwest Regional – Favorites on Collision Course?
2009-03-27

Most people in downtown Indianapolis and around the country are expecting a battle of the top two seeds Sunday afternoon. Both Louisville and Michigan State were challenged in the second round and each passed at crunch time to advance. In order for them to hook-up, the Cardinals and Spartans must navigate a treacherous foe that could destroy what many people figured was an inevitable matchup. Do the dogs have a chance? See who your colleagues are backing on the Betting Trends page.

(1) Louisville vs (12) Arizona

Despite being the overall number one seed and holder of a dozen straight wins, coach Rick Pitino saw disturbing trends very similar to what plagued his squad in December. Louisville mastered Morehead State 74-54 as 21.5-point favorites, however led by just two at the half. The Cardinals built significant leads over Siena a couple of times, yet flittered away both and they didn’t put away the Saints until the last few possessions.

Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels have been like the stock market in recent weeks, up one day and down the next. Only Terrence Williams has been consistent and he has been brilliant in leading his team. Preston Knowles and Andre McGee must do a better job shooting the ball, not settling for three-point shots like they did in the first two games. This pair has to be more aggressive in getting to the basket, which could open up teammates for better shots. Louisville (30-5, 21-14 ATS) has to be prepared to start fast and is 21-10 ATS having won 12 or more of their last 15 games.

If the Cards take their time, they could be chasing Arizona (21-13, 19-14-1 ATS) all day. The Wildcats have three exceptionally talented players and this trio has started fast in both victories. Guard Nic Wise and pushed the ball at every opportunity, Chase Budinger has made long shots as expected, but has attacked the rim like LeBron James with big-time flushes that have kept his teammates fired up. Center Jordan Hill has picked his spots, scoring when called upon and having a number of nice assists.

Arizona is playing with a real hunger and being the 12th seed is just having fun. Sportsbook.com has the ‘Cats on the receiving end of nine-points, with the total having risen to 139. They are 22-12 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by eight or more points a game.

Should Louisville be trusted, history suggests maybe, as favorites of seven or more points are 29-1 SU with .500 spread record in the round of Sweet 16. A 12th seed has never beaten a No.1 in 15 prior meetings and is 6-9 ATS.

(2) Kansas vs (2) Michigan State

This Midwestern matchup is a revenge game for Kansas, who lost to Michigan State 75-62 as 6.5-point road underdogs on January 10. The Jayhawks (27-7, 20-8-1 ATS) have grown as the young players matured and become more reliable. The two rocks have to be guard Sherron Collins and center Cole Aldrich. The Kansas point guard can get hotter than soup left in the microwave too long and blister opposing teams. His stocky build allows him to get to the rim the same as a much taller player. Aldrich continually works on all aspects of his game and is going to make a very nice living at the next level.

Bill Self’s club has been able to stay under the radar all season, with oddsmakers never quite figuring them out. They have won and covered both games in the tournament; including demolishing Dayton 60-43 and they are 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.
With Kansas a much better team than what Michigan State (28-6, 17-13-1 ATS) saw previously, the Spartans are different also. Kalin Lucas was just hitting his stride and improved dramatically to be named Big Ten player of the year. Goran Suton was still rounding into form from injury and though he had a poor shooting game against USC, he was a huge part in the Trojans Taj Gibson being a non-factor in last contest. Raymar Morgan isn’t all the way back from mono, however more glimpses are shown each game of him coming back for a Spartans team that is 12-4 ATS when playing on a neutral court over the last two seasons.

This 2 vs 3 contest opened as a Pick, with bettors making Michigan State a one-point favorite. Two seeds are 19-9 in these matchups, covering 16 times. Michigan State is 28-3 and 15-12-1 ATS when winning the battle on the glass, and if they neutralize Aldrich, the Spartans should be great position to triumph.
Don’t look for this to be a white elephant, with two very well coached teams.