College basketball prediction

College basketball prediction was created to assist the college hoops gambler in cashing in from the preseason tournaments all the way through March Madness.

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This site was created to assist the college hoops gambler in cashing in from the preseason tournaments all the way through March Madness. Be sure to log on daily for all of the latest information, news and tips during the college b-ball season.

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NCAAB: Kansas vs. Memphis
2008-04-07

College Basketball’s National Champion is crowned tonight in San Antonio. Will it be Memphis or Kansas? According to 81% Sportsbook.com bettors, the lean is on the Tigers, who’ve gone from a 1-1/2 point opening line dog to a 2-point favorite.

The first ever Final Four with four designated number one seeds, did not produce the kind of excitement many expected. Instead, Memphis and Kansas dismantled opponents that were either too slow or not quick enough to play with them. If guard play is one of the most important elements of post-season tournament basketball, than Memphis is flushed with a pair nobody has in college basketball. The Jayhawks three-act play, as noted by announcers Billy Packer and Jim Nantz, almost turned into a Greek tragedy, until a Russian made a pair of buckets to right the Kansas ship.

A rose by any color is still a rose and coach John Calipari might have one the prettiest around in freshman Derrick Rose. He and sharp shooter Chris Douglas-Roberts have dominated three sets of guards that were probably in the top 15 in the country. Michigan State, Texas and UCLA all the lacked the size and more importantly, the skill to stop the Tigers twosome. Those that backed the Bruins talked about their defense, but when you can’t catch what you can’t see, Rose in the open court and CDR drilling long range jumpers or flushing dunks on cuts to the basket, it takes more than just talk about playing defense. Memphis is averaging 83.8 points per game in the NCAA’s and is 7-1 ATS after scoring 75 points or more three straight games this season.

Memphis defense is so long with its guards and Antonio Anderson, Shawn Taggert, Robert Dozier and John Dorsey collectively are underrated in holding teams to 38.7 percent shooting on the season. They have held the Longhorns and UCLA to under 38 percent shooting. These Tigers have stymied offensive juggernauts like Kansas; with 27-11 ATS record versus offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game after 15 or games.

Kansas can counter all this power and speed. The Jayhawks backcourt has blazers like Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush and powerful Sherron Collins coming off the bench. Chalmers and Rush have inside-outside capabilities and Collins may get to the rim better than anyone in the country under 6’0. The Jayhawks are 13-6 ATS after seven or more consecutive wins this season.

Coach Bill Self has more depth and frontcourt options than Aerosmith has songs to choose from for concert dates, as the Tar Heels learned. 6-9 forward Darrell Arthur and 6-8 Darnell Jackson are excellent hard working, athletic scoring options, with very good defensive mind-set. When they need a rest, Sasha Kaun, from Russia, who has more offensive tricks than Boris and Natasha, is instant offense, with defensive positioning. The future of Kansas hoops, 7 -0 freshmen Cole Aldrich, gave marvelous performance against North Carolina.

The betting public is not convinced Kansas can win, taking them from opening 1.5-point favorite to 1.5-point underdog at Sportsbook.com and other wagering outlets. For bettors this could play into the Jayhawks hands, since they are 7-1 ATS as underdogs. Even if Kansas can limit offenses with 37.9 percent field goal defense, the Tigers are 16-5 ATS versus very good defensive teams – that hold opponents to 39 percent or less after 15 or games contests.

The total has risen to 1.5-points to 146, which in theory benefits Kansas who is 23-10 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. The Jayhawks should be able to rebound with Memphis and is 8-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by four or more per game this season.

Memphis has not faced a team as offensively diverse, who passes the ball as well as Kansas, yet they have still been successful against teams that average 16 or more assists a game with 25-8 ATS record. Additionally title game favorites are 14-3 and 12-5 ATS.

Everything points to special championship contest, with the telecast starting at 8 Eastern on CBS.

StatFox Power Line – Kansas by 2

NCAAB: Final Four Notes & Quotes (6:05 PM ET, CBS)
2008-04-04

By now you’ve had time to fully digest a week’s worth of information regarding the Final Four teams in preparation for Saturday’s games. However, perhaps you don’t know that 70% of bettors are favoring Memphis and 79% back North Carolina. Here are some more tidbits to chew on.

With a full week to accumulate enough knowledge about the four teams in the Final Four, that anyone could start there own Wikipedia page, the idea became to keep it simple for those still looking to place a wager on two of the three remaining college basketball games. We’ll stick to the college basketball betting facts, and have our experts share there opinions on each semifinal contest.

With this being the first ever Final Four to have all four seeded number one’s advance, it is easy to surmise the favorites are ruling again this year. Thus far in the tournament, chalk bettors are dealing out the punishment for the second year in a row with 39-21 against the spread record, good for +15.9 units of profit on straight bets. The top seeded teams are a combined 11-5 ATS in the tournament, with North Carolina perfect 4-0 ATS and collectively they have played Over the total 10 of 16 games.

UCLA had a scare against Texas A&M in the second round and survived 53-49 as 9.5-point favorites. They have gone on to win next two games by 10 and 19 points. In the Final Four, underdogs like the Bruins off a pair of wins by 10 or more points are just 1-4 ATS in recent efforts.

North Carolina has been listed anywhere from 2-1 to 8-5 to win the whole tournament for the second time in four years. To date they have not really had a scare and teams that have won and covered three consecutive games leading up to Final Four matchup are 6-20 ATS in this round.

Big 12 teams like Kansas are not in an enviable position when the tourney reaches this point, showing just a 5-9 SU and ATS record in the last two decades.

This Memphis team would be a power in any conference they would have played in this season. About the last thing these Tigers are is a Cinderella story, yet it is worth mentioning, teams outside the Power Six conferences are 3-8 and 4-7 ATS when they make to this juncture.

For those that want to ride the favorites until the tournament comes to a conclusion, this might be a sound strategy, since they are 17-7 and 16-8 ATS since 2000, including 8-2 SU and ATS the last five years.

While many bettors shy away from Totals, it might be a wise idea to consider this on Saturday. North Carolina and Kansas are two high scoring teams and Bookmaker.com has them posted at 159 for there matchup. Of the last 37 times the total has been over 150, the UNDER has been the correct play 24 times, for 64.8 win percentage.

Here is what the StatFox experts see occurring on Saturday.

Semifinal #1: MEMPHIS (-2) vs. UCLA Total-134.5

StatFox Steve says: Although the pointspread is closer for the Memphis-UCLA game than it is for the Kansas-North Carolina contest, the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings suggest it should be the opposite. In fact, Memphis holds a 4-point edge in that category. In point differential for the season, Memphis is +18.7, UCLA is +15.3. The bottom line that these numbers are showing is that the Tigers are the more dominant team. Execution-wise I would give UCLA the edge in this duel, but in shear talent, power, and athleticism, what Memphis showed last weekend has to give them the overall edge. Strangely, even in an area where UCLA is very well respected, defensively, HC John Calipari’s team boasts much stronger statistics. As long as the free throw shooting doesn’t go completely belly up in the game, I don’t see any reason Memphis should not win this game and cover the minute pointspread. Play: Memphis -1

StatFox Doug says: UCLA will undoubtedly try to slow the game down against Memphis and control the tempo, making it more to their liking. The Bruins will walk the ball up and try to force Memphis to play defense for longer stretches. It won’t work, coach John Calipari will breakdown Western Kentucky win and see what problems the Bruins had with Hilltoppers. Memphis’ better and longer athletes can be extremely effective in zone traps and he has them 100 percent committed on defensive end. Kevin Love can present problems from matchup standpoint, especially if he hits a few long shots. By the same token, he is not a quick leaper and Memphis frontcourt players can use athletic ability to tap balls or just go over the top. Coach Ben Howland has dilemma how to play Tigers guards. As Memphis proved against Texas, smaller guards can be extinguished. Tigers by 8.

Semifinal #2: KANSAS vs. N CAROLINA (-3) Total-159

StatFox Steve says: I’m not as sold on the side on this game as I am on the other one. As dominant as North Carolina has been in the tournament thus far, I am leery on laying the points in a game where the StatFox Forecaster actually gives Kansas the straight up edge. I truly believe this game could go either way. However, I do like one side of the total, and that is the UNDER. Kansas has been phenomenal defensively in March, holding seven of 10 teams to 61 points or less. Plus, history has shown that the rest will give Bill Self a chance to plot for the Tar Heels offensive explosiveness: Self is 17-4 UNDER (+12.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest as the coach of KANSAS. The average score was KANSAS 73.8, OPPONENT 57.6 - (Rating = 3*). He’s holding these foes to under 58 PPG. Furthermore, if you consider the brisk pace at which the UNC-Louisville game was played, with each team shooting better than 50% from the floor, that contest produced only 156 points. I don’t see both the clubs shooting that well here. Play the UNDER 158.5.

StatFox Doug says: Announcer Gus Johnson’s comment about 800-pound gorilla removed from Bill Self and Kansas back was poignant. The Jayhawks are unburdened with expectations now and will face teams will equal ability, making them underdog, were they could flourish. In the Jayhawks last seven underdog roles, they have cashed in six of them. The game with North Carolina has the making a classic; both teams shoot the ball extremely well, make three-point shots with great regularity and attack the rim off the bounce. Where Kansas has the edge is overall defense. Do they have a player like Taylor Hansbrough, no; however have the same or bettor at all other positions, with greater depth. Kansas in a tight one by 2.

If you want to place one absolutely GUARANTEED wager, do so for the Championship game on Monday. Number one seeds are 5-0 against the spread.

NCAAB: NIT Semi–Finals (7:00 PM ET, ESPN2)
2008-04-01

It wasn’t the kind of Final Four Florida coach Billy Donovan was looking for, however now that his Gators squad has made it this far, why not take home another trophy for the third year in a row. They’ll play UMass tonight at 7:00 PM ET in the first of two NIT Semifinals.

As of mid-morning Tuesday, over 90% of the early betting action was siding with the Gators as a 4-1/2 point favorite. That line started at minus-3, so oddsmakers have adjusted to the one-sided action. Follow the Betting Trends page throughout the day to see if the adjustment made was enough to even the score. In the other contest, Ohio State, a 2-1/2 point favorite against Ole Miss, was getting over 70% of the attention from bettors.

Coach Donovan booted his young team out of locker room, after losing fourth consecutive game and SEC tourney opener to Alabama 80-69. He had a perfect understanding of his team and the situation, and the baby Gators have responded with three wins by average of 21.6 points per game, shooting 54 percent and outrebounding opponents by more than 10 per games in this tournament.

"We're still playing for a championship. It's maybe not the championship that we wanted to play for, but we can still bring a banner back." Freshman Chandler Parsons said in the Gainesville Sun, on the Gators' advance to the NIT semifinals. Florida is now 13-2 ATS in a post-season tournament game over the last three seasons and takes on a Massachusetts team trying to earn its own respect.

"(The Florida Gators) are a team that is playing with a great sense urgency," Ford said after a team practice on March 28. "You can see the difference in them. Very talented basketball team. Very very talented basketball team. Very similar to the one we just played as far as very good young talent, probably even more talent than Syracuse." UMass victory was stirring over the Orangemen, coming back from 19-point deficit at halftime. "I told our guys at halftime I wasn't really happy," Ford said. "I told them, 'Get your heads up. We're lucky we're only down 19.' That was the worst half of basketball we've played all year. But being down 19 wasn't a problem. The way we play, 19 points wasn't a problem."

A less than focused effort could spell doom for the Minutemen, who are 7-1 ATS in road games versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a game this season. Despite averaging more points per game then Florida (81.5 vs 77.9) UMass has to play slower and be in control of tempo.

Sportsbook.com has Florida as four point favorites in first semi-final game, with the Gators 14-5 ATS in road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more. Massachusetts is just 1-5 ATS as neutral site underdog.

In the nightcap, it’s the SEC against the Big Ten. Mississippi was the upset road winner at Virginia Tech, coming away with a victory 81-72 at Blacksburg as 7.5-point underdogs. The Rebels have won six of seven (5-2 ATS) and tickling the twine with great regularity, making over 50 percent of their shots in this time frame. The defense has also been sharp except for two non-covers and they are 16-5 ATS off a road win.

Ohio State was able to benefit from three NIT games in Columbus to advance to New York. This still an accomplishment for team returning just one starter in Jamar Butler, from a squad that played in national championship game last season. Butler is also playmaker and best outside scoring threat for often inconsistent offensive team. The Buckeyes are just 5-10 away from home, though they did mange to cover eight times. Having shot 50 percent or better in each NIT contest, the Scarlet and Gray are 10-1 ATS after two straight outings where they made half or more of shot attempts over the last two seasons.

The Buckeyes are two point favorites and will take on Ole Miss club that is 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

The doubleheader action commences at 7 Eastern on ESPN2.

StatFox Power Line – Florida by 3, Ohio State by 2

NCAAB: Midwest Region Features Upstarts
2008-03-28

The second day of Sweet 16 action tips off in the Midwest Regional in Detroit, with a battle between Wisconsin and Davidson. That game will be followed up by Kansas-Villanova. Early spread bettors are embracing the favorites in these contests.

Be sure to visit the Betting Trends page before making a move on either of these games or the South Regional action, as there have been some definitive patterns that have formed in the Sweet 16 games. When ready, lock and load by clicking on the Live Odds page for the latest lines.

Maybe the city of Detroit and the automakers ought to take a look at the blueprint of success that surprise visitors Villanova and Davidson put together as #12 and #10 seeds, to advance to the Motor City for Midwest Regional. Each concocted a vehicle that sped to Detroit, having just the right amount of manpower to build such a smooth running machine and enough horse power when they stepped on the gas; they just blew away the competition.

The Davidson Wildcats have been an unknown quantity, even as they have been piling impressive win totals the last several seasons under veteran coach Bob McKillop, who is in his 19th season. Davidson this season became recognized for having one of the premier scorers in the country in Stephen Curry, winning 22 consecutive games and playing better competition in November and December and losing. The Gonzaga win in the opening round was of note, as Curry scored 30 of his 40 points in the second half. What has brought the Wildcats to the forefront was not only beating a very good and number two seed Georgetown team, but the manner in which they did so, in overcoming 16-point deficit against one of the premier defensive teams in the country. Coach McKillop will be able to show off his coaching acumen against another highly respected coach in the industry in Bo Ryan.

Ryan’s Wisconsin teams are not flashy, strictly black suits with solid color tie material.

Nonetheless, they carry out orders like CIA operatives, thoroughly, with convincing results. The Badgers allow just 55.4 points per game away from Madison and are 12-3 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. The Badgers have won a dozen straight, with ten covers. There goal will be to limit the number of touches Curry has, since he owns a hair-trigger release. Wisconsin will want to have point guard Jason Richards handle the ball more and force him to dish to frontcourt players before he gets into the paint.

Wisconsin has good size, but junior Andrew Lovedale is more athletic than the Badgers' bigs and will need to create seams for himself and stay out of foul trouble. Davidson is 17-5 ATS the road and is 4.5-point underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with 126.5 Total. The Wildcats are 15-5 ATS against teams with wining records this season. With the way Wisconsin can play defense, if they score 67 to 74 points they are 6-0 against the spread.

Approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of the first contest, Villanova will take on top-seeded Kansas. The Wildcats unlikely ascension actually started in the first round of the Big East tournament, when they took out Syracuse, in what was widely perceived as NCAA Tournament elimination game. Villanova overcame huge Clemson lead in the first half to come back to win and jumped on nervous Siena and coasted to victory. The Wildcats are thought to be one of those teams that should just be happy to be in Sweet 16, which is probably true. Coach Jay Wright will explain to his young team, winning is what matters and if Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher can get hot, who knows. ‘Nova is 14-1 SU if they make eight or more treys and 14-4 ATS in neutral site games as an underdog.

Kansas has played like the roles the California governor used to star in “Terminator” flicks. Since the unsightly loss to Oklahoma State on Feb. 23, the Jayhawks have reeled off nine straight wins, with 6-3 ATS record. What has made Kansas so wicked late, is the play of point guard Sherron Collins and the Brandon Rush demanding the ball and converting jumps shots all over the floor. Bill Self team has been cleaning the glass as well and is 11-2 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponent by six or more.

Kansas is 12-point choice, yet is only 2-7 ATS in Sweet 16 round.

StatFox Power Line- Wisconsin by 1, Kansas by 12