NCAAB: Kansas at Missouri

The Kansas Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost their unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State last Saturday and have one more treacherous stop left. Kansas’ most immediate goal is to secure a #1 seed for the Big Dance, and a loss against t

2010-03-08

The Kansas Jayhawks fell from No.1 and lost their unbeaten regular season in the Big 12 at Oklahoma State last Saturday and have one more treacherous stop left.

Kansas’ most immediate goal is to secure a #1 seed for the Big Dance, and a loss against the Missouri Tigers on Saturday could derail that goal.

Get the latest line for this game on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.

Kansas played outstanding, crushing Kansas State by 17 points last week and have one last conference clash as they travel to the home of their most bitter rival Missouri (22-8, 14-10 ATS).

Kansas coach Bill Self has seen his team routinely build 20+ point leads and win by less, which is a big reason why the Jayhawks are only 11-15-1 ATS. That should not be a problem in Columbia, however a 2-13 ATS record after winning 18 or more of their last 20 games over the last three seasons is.

Missouri is in the Big Dance and an upset could improve their seeding dramatically. The Tigers are ferocious at home with a 16-1 record (8-4 ATS), winning by 23.8 points per game. Mizzou’s backcourt is like an unmarked stove, you’re never sure what area is hot, and once determined, that player can stay hot until the next one emerges.

Missouri guards Kim English and Zaire Taylor are the most likely to heat up quickly, but sub Marcus Denmon has shown proclivity to ripping the chords also. Missouri needs its pressure defense to force miscues and turn them into points and is 8-2 ATS versus offensive clubs scoring 77 or more points game in 2009-10.

Missouri is 5-11 and 5-9-2 ATS in “Border Wars” since 2001 and the team with the higher three-point shooting percent is 16-0 SU.

The StatFox Power Line shows pick em’ but this is what Steve Makinen had to say about this affair: For having just 27 total samples since ’97, I figure this particular FoxSheet system should be in play for at least three of four games this week alone: Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSOURI) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, in March games. (23-4 since 1997.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 3*). Think about why this is successful. If a team is that good, playing at home, and the line is not more than 3-points, you have to assume the visiting opponent is a better club. That is the case here. The Jayhawks spanked the Tigers by 19 points in January and already suffered their learning loss last Saturday. HC Bill Self won’t be fooled two straight weeks.

Play: Kansas

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